Econometrics

Asymmetric Demography and the Global Economy: Growth by José María Fanelli (eds.)

By José María Fanelli (eds.)

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Extra info for Asymmetric Demography and the Global Economy: Growth Opportunities and Macroeconomic Challenges in an Ageing World

Sample text

While the study projects no major changes in the global savings rate, it estimates that the share of emerging economies will increase in line with the tendency observed in the last decade. 11 shows the global distribution of savings and investment among the groups that we previously identified at three moments: 1995, 2010, and 2030. First, note that the process of savings redistribution among emerging and advanced economies will continue in the future: in 2030 the former will save six out of every ten dollars of world (G-20) savings.

The dynamics of the advanced-younger group, on the contrary, did not yield the expected results. The group’s results were driven by the United States that ran a current account deficit. As Bernanke states in his famous talk on the global savings glut, “demographic factors should lead the industrial countries to try to save more, not less,” but “current account positions in industrial countries adjusted endogenously to . . 10 EbZ[h[c[h]_d] IWkZ_7hWX_W Oekd][hWZlWdY[Z (&'' (&&/ (&&- (&&+ (&&) (&&' '/// '//- '//+ '//) & '//' (&') (&'' (&&/ (&&- (&&+ (&&) (&&' '/// '//- '//+ '//) '//' (& ·'&&& EbZ[hWZlWdY[Z Capital flows in G-20 countries Source: Author’s elaboration based on IMF data.

The group’s results were driven by the United States that ran a current account deficit. As Bernanke states in his famous talk on the global savings glut, “demographic factors should lead the industrial countries to try to save more, not less,” but “current account positions in industrial countries adjusted endogenously to . . 10 EbZ[h[c[h]_d] IWkZ_7hWX_W Oekd][hWZlWdY[Z (&'' (&&/ (&&- (&&+ (&&) (&&' '/// '//- '//+ '//) & '//' (&') (&'' (&&/ (&&- (&&+ (&&) (&&' '/// '//- '//+ '//) '//' (& ·'&&& EbZ[hWZlWdY[Z Capital flows in G-20 countries Source: Author’s elaboration based on IMF data.

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